E. O. Agbogun

Crude oil price gyrations, macroeconomic aggregates, and the stock exchange performance of Nigeria: A directional approach

The paper ascertained if oil price gyrations and macroeconomic aggregates granger causes the Nigerian exchange group performance from 1986 to 2024. Data were sourced from the World Bank database, 2024 and the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2023. The study adopted the Toda, Yamamoto, Dolado and Lutkepohl (TYDL) granger causality approach. The TYDL Granger causality test provides a comprehensive and integrated approach on the short-run causal dynamics among the target variables: crude oil price gyrations (COPG), exchange rate (EXCR), GDP growth rate (GDPR), inflation rate (INFR), interest rate (INTR), and market capitalization to GDP Ratio (MCAP). The study establishes significant directional causal relationships among macroeconomic aggregates and stock exchange performance in Nigeria, providing empirical evidence for policy interventions in Nigeria's capital market.